Assessment of the Forecasting Capacity of the Bankruptcy Prediction Models in Companies Listed on the Stock Exchange in Chile and Brazil

Benito Umaña-Hermosilla, Edinson Cornejo-Saavedra, Valeria Riquelme-Garcés, Hanns de la Fuente-Mella, Claudio Elórtegui-Gómez

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

In this research, the bankruptcy situation of companies listed on the Santiago de Chile Stock Exchange and the São Paulo Stock Exchange are tested, through models: Z-Score, Logit and Probit, comparing the forecast of the companies classified as likely to fail, in order to assess whether the models could anticipate a possible crisis situation. The results indicate that, for the year 2016, the bankruptcy of 13 Chilean companies and 59 Brazilian companies, mostly belonging to the construction and manufacturing sector in both countries, was forecast. It is concluded that the Z-Score and Z1 Models would be more applicable to the economies under study, as they were correct in the forecast of all Chilean companies and 49 Brazilian companies, and it is always necessary to complement the tools oriented to financial analysis.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAdvances in Human Factors, Business Management and Leadership - Proceedings of the AHFE 2021 Virtual Conferences on Human Factors, Business Management and Society, and Human Factors in Management and Leadership, 2021
EditorsJussi Ilari Kantola, Salman Nazir, Vesa Salminen
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Pages119-128
Number of pages10
ISBN (Print)9783030808754
DOIs
StatePublished - 2021
Externally publishedYes
EventAHFE Conferences on Human Factors, Business Management and Society, and Human Factors in Management and Leadership, 2021 - Virtual, Online
Duration: 25 Jul 202129 Jul 2021

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Networks and Systems
Volume267
ISSN (Print)2367-3370
ISSN (Electronic)2367-3389

Conference

ConferenceAHFE Conferences on Human Factors, Business Management and Society, and Human Factors in Management and Leadership, 2021
CityVirtual, Online
Period25/07/2129/07/21

Keywords

  • Bankruptcy
  • Econometric Modeling
  • Financial Analysis
  • Z-Score Index

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