Assessment of the Forecasting Capacity of the Bankruptcy Prediction Models in Companies Listed on the Stock Exchange in Chile and Brazil

Benito Umaña-Hermosilla; Edinson Cornejo-Saavedra; Valeria Riquelme-Garcés; Hanns de la Fuente-Mella; Claudio Elórtegui-Gómez

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-80876-1_17

Assessment of the Forecasting Capacity of the Bankruptcy Prediction Models in Companies Listed on the Stock Exchange in Chile and Brazil

Benito Umaña-Hermosilla, Edinson Cornejo-Saavedra, Valeria Riquelme-Garcés, Hanns de la Fuente-Mella, Claudio Elórtegui-Gómez

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

Abstract

In this research, the bankruptcy situation of companies listed on the Santiago de Chile Stock Exchange and the São Paulo Stock Exchange are tested, through models: Z-Score, Logit and Probit, comparing the forecast of the companies classified as likely to fail, in order to assess whether the models could anticipate a possible crisis situation. The results indicate that, for the year 2016, the bankruptcy of 13 Chilean companies and 59 Brazilian companies, mostly belonging to the construction and manufacturing sector in both countries, was forecast. It is concluded that the Z-Score and Z1 Models would be more applicable to the economies under study, as they were correct in the forecast of all Chilean companies and 49 Brazilian companies, and it is always necessary to complement the tools oriented to financial analysis.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Advances in Human Factors, Business Management and Leadership - Proceedings of the AHFE 2021 Virtual Conferences on Human Factors, Business Management and Society, and Human Factors in Management and Leadership, 2021
Editors	Jussi Ilari Kantola, Salman Nazir, Vesa Salminen
Publisher	Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Pages	119-128
Number of pages	10
ISBN (Print)	9783030808754
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-80876-1_17
State	Published - 2021
Event	AHFE Conferences on Human Factors, Business Management and Society, and Human Factors in Management and Leadership, 2021 - Virtual, Online Duration: 25 Jul 2021 → 29 Jul 2021

Publication series

Name	Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems
Volume	267
ISSN (Print)	2367-3370
ISSN (Electronic)	2367-3389

Conference

Conference	AHFE Conferences on Human Factors, Business Management and Society, and Human Factors in Management and Leadership, 2021
City	Virtual, Online
Period	25/07/21 → 29/07/21

Keywords

Bankruptcy
Econometric Modeling
Financial Analysis
Z-Score Index

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-030-80876-1_17

Cite this

Umaña-Hermosilla, B., Cornejo-Saavedra, E., Riquelme-Garcés, V., de la Fuente-Mella, H., & Elórtegui-Gómez, C. (2021). Assessment of the Forecasting Capacity of the Bankruptcy Prediction Models in Companies Listed on the Stock Exchange in Chile and Brazil. In J. I. Kantola, S. Nazir, & V. Salminen (Eds.), Advances in Human Factors, Business Management and Leadership - Proceedings of the AHFE 2021 Virtual Conferences on Human Factors, Business Management and Society, and Human Factors in Management and Leadership, 2021 (pp. 119-128). (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems; Vol. 267). Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-80876-1_17

Umaña-Hermosilla, Benito ; Cornejo-Saavedra, Edinson ; Riquelme-Garcés, Valeria et al. / Assessment of the Forecasting Capacity of the Bankruptcy Prediction Models in Companies Listed on the Stock Exchange in Chile and Brazil. Advances in Human Factors, Business Management and Leadership - Proceedings of the AHFE 2021 Virtual Conferences on Human Factors, Business Management and Society, and Human Factors in Management and Leadership, 2021. editor / Jussi Ilari Kantola ; Salman Nazir ; Vesa Salminen. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2021. pp. 119-128 (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems).

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title = "Assessment of the Forecasting Capacity of the Bankruptcy Prediction Models in Companies Listed on the Stock Exchange in Chile and Brazil",

abstract = "In this research, the bankruptcy situation of companies listed on the Santiago de Chile Stock Exchange and the S{\~a}o Paulo Stock Exchange are tested, through models: Z-Score, Logit and Probit, comparing the forecast of the companies classified as likely to fail, in order to assess whether the models could anticipate a possible crisis situation. The results indicate that, for the year 2016, the bankruptcy of 13 Chilean companies and 59 Brazilian companies, mostly belonging to the construction and manufacturing sector in both countries, was forecast. It is concluded that the Z-Score and Z1 Models would be more applicable to the economies under study, as they were correct in the forecast of all Chilean companies and 49 Brazilian companies, and it is always necessary to complement the tools oriented to financial analysis.",

keywords = "Bankruptcy, Econometric Modeling, Financial Analysis, Z-Score Index",

author = "Benito Uma{\~n}a-Hermosilla and Edinson Cornejo-Saavedra and Valeria Riquelme-Garc{\'e}s and {de la Fuente-Mella}, Hanns and Claudio El{\'o}rtegui-G{\'o}mez",

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language = "English",

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Umaña-Hermosilla, B, Cornejo-Saavedra, E, Riquelme-Garcés, V, de la Fuente-Mella, H & Elórtegui-Gómez, C 2021, Assessment of the Forecasting Capacity of the Bankruptcy Prediction Models in Companies Listed on the Stock Exchange in Chile and Brazil. in JI Kantola, S Nazir & V Salminen (eds), Advances in Human Factors, Business Management and Leadership - Proceedings of the AHFE 2021 Virtual Conferences on Human Factors, Business Management and Society, and Human Factors in Management and Leadership, 2021. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol. 267, Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, pp. 119-128, AHFE Conferences on Human Factors, Business Management and Society, and Human Factors in Management and Leadership, 2021, Virtual, Online, 25/07/21. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-80876-1_17

Assessment of the Forecasting Capacity of the Bankruptcy Prediction Models in Companies Listed on the Stock Exchange in Chile and Brazil. / Umaña-Hermosilla, Benito; Cornejo-Saavedra, Edinson; Riquelme-Garcés, Valeria et al.
Advances in Human Factors, Business Management and Leadership - Proceedings of the AHFE 2021 Virtual Conferences on Human Factors, Business Management and Society, and Human Factors in Management and Leadership, 2021. ed. / Jussi Ilari Kantola; Salman Nazir; Vesa Salminen. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2021. p. 119-128 (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems; Vol. 267).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

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AU - Cornejo-Saavedra, Edinson

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AU - de la Fuente-Mella, Hanns

AU - Elórtegui-Gómez, Claudio

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Umaña-Hermosilla B, Cornejo-Saavedra E, Riquelme-Garcés V, de la Fuente-Mella H, Elórtegui-Gómez C. Assessment of the Forecasting Capacity of the Bankruptcy Prediction Models in Companies Listed on the Stock Exchange in Chile and Brazil. In Kantola JI, Nazir S, Salminen V, editors, Advances in Human Factors, Business Management and Leadership - Proceedings of the AHFE 2021 Virtual Conferences on Human Factors, Business Management and Society, and Human Factors in Management and Leadership, 2021. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH. 2021. p. 119-128. (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems). doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-80876-1_17

Assessment of the Forecasting Capacity of the Bankruptcy Prediction Models in Companies Listed on the Stock Exchange in Chile and Brazil

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Keywords

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