Fishery forecasting based on singular spectrum analysis combined with bivariate regression

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

The fishery of anchovy and sardine has a great importance in the economy of Chile; they are important resources used for internal consumption and for export. The forecasting based on historical time series is a fishery planning tool. In this paper is presented the forecasting of anchovy and sardine by means of the monthly catches in the Chilean northern coast (18°S – 24°S), during the period January 1976 to December 2007. The forecasting strategy is presented in two stages: preprocessing and prediction. In the first stage the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) technique is applied to extract the components interannual and annual of the time series. In the second stage the Bivariate Regression (BVR) is implemented to predict the extracted components. The results evaluated with the efficiency metrics show a high prediction accuracy of the strategy based on SSA and BVR. Besides, the results are compared with a conventional nonlinear prediction based on an Autoregressive Neural Network (ANN) with Levenberg-Marquardt; it was demonstrated the improvement in the prediction accuracy by using the proposed strategy SSA-BVR with regard to the results obtained with the ANN.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAdvances in Artificial Intelligence and Its Applications - 14th Mexican International Conference on Artificial Intelligence, MICAI 2015, Proceedings
EditorsOscar Herrera Alcántara, Obdulia Pichardo Lagunas, Gustavo Arroyo Figueroa
PublisherSpringer Verlag
Pages487-497
Number of pages11
ISBN (Print)9783319271002
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Jan 2015
Event14th Mexican International Conference on Artificial Intelligence, MICAI 2015 - Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
Duration: 25 Oct 201531 Oct 2015

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
Volume9414
ISSN (Print)0302-9743
ISSN (Electronic)1611-3349

Conference

Conference14th Mexican International Conference on Artificial Intelligence, MICAI 2015
CountryMexico
CityCuernavaca, Morelos
Period25/10/1531/10/15

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Fishery forecasting based on singular spectrum analysis combined with bivariate regression'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this