TY - JOUR
T1 - Modeling COVID-19 cases statistically and evaluating their effect on the economy of countries
AU - DE LA FUENTE MELLA, HANNS ANIBAL
AU - Rubilar, Rolando
AU - Chahuán-Jiménez, Karime
AU - LEIVA SANCHEZ, VICTOR ELISEO
N1 - Funding Information:
Research work of H.d.l.F.-M was partially supported by grant N?cleo de Investigaci?n en Data Analytics/VRIEA/PUCV/039.432/2020 from the Vice-Rectory for Research and Advanced Studies of the Pontifical Catholic University of Valpara?so, Chile. Research of V.L. was partially supported by FONDECYT, grant number 1200525, from the National Agency for Research and Development (ANID) of the Chilean government under the Ministry of Science, Technology, Knowledge and Innovation.
Funding Information:
Funding: Research work of H.d.l.F.-M was partially supported by grant Núcleo de Investigación en Data Analytics/VRIEA/PUCV/039.432/2020 from the Vice-Rectory for Research and Advanced Studies of the Pontifical Catholic University of Valparaíso, Chile. Research of V.L. was partially supported by FONDECYT, grant number 1200525, from the National Agency for Research and Development (ANID) of the Chilean government under the Ministry of Science, Technology, Knowledge and Innovation.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
PY - 2021/7/1
Y1 - 2021/7/1
N2 - COVID-19 infections have plagued the world and led to deaths with a heavy pneumonia manifestation. The main objective of this investigation is to evaluate the performance of certain economies during the crisis derived from the COVID-19 pandemic. The gross domestic product (GDP) and global health security index (GHSI) of the countries belonging–or not–to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) are considered. In this paper, statistical models are formulated to study this performance. The models’ specifications include, as the response variable, the GDP variation/growth percentage in 2020, and as the covariates: the COVID-19 disease rate from its start in March 2020 until 31 December 2020; the GHSI of 2019; the countries’ risk by default spreads from July 2019 to May 2020; belongingness or not to the OECD; and the GDP per capita in 2020. We test the heteroscedasticity phenomenon present in the modeling. The variable “COVID-19 cases per million inhabitants” is statistically significant, showing its impact on each country’s economy through the GDP variation. Therefore, we report that COVID-19 cases affect domestic economies, but that OECD membership and other risk factors are also relevant.
AB - COVID-19 infections have plagued the world and led to deaths with a heavy pneumonia manifestation. The main objective of this investigation is to evaluate the performance of certain economies during the crisis derived from the COVID-19 pandemic. The gross domestic product (GDP) and global health security index (GHSI) of the countries belonging–or not–to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) are considered. In this paper, statistical models are formulated to study this performance. The models’ specifications include, as the response variable, the GDP variation/growth percentage in 2020, and as the covariates: the COVID-19 disease rate from its start in March 2020 until 31 December 2020; the GHSI of 2019; the countries’ risk by default spreads from July 2019 to May 2020; belongingness or not to the OECD; and the GDP per capita in 2020. We test the heteroscedasticity phenomenon present in the modeling. The variable “COVID-19 cases per million inhabitants” is statistically significant, showing its impact on each country’s economy through the GDP variation. Therefore, we report that COVID-19 cases affect domestic economies, but that OECD membership and other risk factors are also relevant.
KW - Data science
KW - Econometric modeling
KW - Economic crisis
KW - Global health security index
KW - Gross domestic product
KW - OECD
KW - SARS-CoV-2
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85110380130&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3390/math9131558
DO - 10.3390/math9131558
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85110380130
VL - 9
JO - Mathematics
JF - Mathematics
SN - 2227-7390
IS - 13
M1 - 1558
ER -