Sensitivity analysis of a photovoltaic solar plant in Chile

F. Bustos; A. Toledo; J. Contreras; A. Fuentes

doi:10.1016/j.renene.2015.09.070

Sensitivity analysis of a photovoltaic solar plant in Chile

F. Bustos, A. Toledo, J. Contreras, A. Fuentes

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

33 Scopus citations

Abstract

A total of 22 cities in Chile were analyzed focusing the development of a 30 MW Photovoltaic Solar Plant using RETScreen software. Results of the study indicate that Calama City presents interesting results, with a Capacity Factor of 34.0% and an Energy Production of 92523 MWh. However, with a discount rate of 12% and an evaluation of 30 years, a Net Present Value (NPV) of -67×10⁶ USD and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 7.0% were obtained due to the high investment cost. Applying a 40% incentive in Calama City, the NPV reaches 11×10⁶ USD, with an IRR of 13.7%, thus obtaining positive financial results. Sensitivity analysis, without the incentive applied, considers the variation of ±30% for five parameters, indicating that the initial cost and the electricity export rate significantly influence the results of the project. A risk analysis was performed on these parameters indicating that an NPV. ≤. 0 and an IRR. ≥. 12% were reached for 94.0% and 7.0% of the projects, respectively considering the initial cost. Analyzing the electricity export rate, only 5.0% of the projects had positive results for NPV and only 4.0% of the projects meet the criteria established for the IRR.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	145-153
Number of pages	9
Journal	Renewable Energy
Volume	87
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2015.09.070
State	Published - 1 Mar 2016
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

CO emissions
Dual-axis PV solar plant
Financial/economic analysis
RETScreen
Risk analysis
Solar radiation

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.renene.2015.09.070

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title = "Sensitivity analysis of a photovoltaic solar plant in Chile",

abstract = "A total of 22 cities in Chile were analyzed focusing the development of a 30 MW Photovoltaic Solar Plant using RETScreen software. Results of the study indicate that Calama City presents interesting results, with a Capacity Factor of 34.0% and an Energy Production of 92523 MWh. However, with a discount rate of 12% and an evaluation of 30 years, a Net Present Value (NPV) of -67×106 USD and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 7.0% were obtained due to the high investment cost. Applying a 40% incentive in Calama City, the NPV reaches 11×106 USD, with an IRR of 13.7%, thus obtaining positive financial results. Sensitivity analysis, without the incentive applied, considers the variation of ±30% for five parameters, indicating that the initial cost and the electricity export rate significantly influence the results of the project. A risk analysis was performed on these parameters indicating that an NPV. ≤. 0 and an IRR. ≥. 12% were reached for 94.0% and 7.0% of the projects, respectively considering the initial cost. Analyzing the electricity export rate, only 5.0% of the projects had positive results for NPV and only 4.0% of the projects meet the criteria established for the IRR.",

keywords = "CO emissions, Dual-axis PV solar plant, Financial/economic analysis, RETScreen, Risk analysis, Solar radiation",

author = "F. Bustos and A. Toledo and J. Contreras and A. Fuentes",

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AU - Bustos, F.

AU - Toledo, A.

AU - Contreras, J.

AU - Fuentes, A.

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Y1 - 2016/3/1

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AB - A total of 22 cities in Chile were analyzed focusing the development of a 30 MW Photovoltaic Solar Plant using RETScreen software. Results of the study indicate that Calama City presents interesting results, with a Capacity Factor of 34.0% and an Energy Production of 92523 MWh. However, with a discount rate of 12% and an evaluation of 30 years, a Net Present Value (NPV) of -67×106 USD and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 7.0% were obtained due to the high investment cost. Applying a 40% incentive in Calama City, the NPV reaches 11×106 USD, with an IRR of 13.7%, thus obtaining positive financial results. Sensitivity analysis, without the incentive applied, considers the variation of ±30% for five parameters, indicating that the initial cost and the electricity export rate significantly influence the results of the project. A risk analysis was performed on these parameters indicating that an NPV. ≤. 0 and an IRR. ≥. 12% were reached for 94.0% and 7.0% of the projects, respectively considering the initial cost. Analyzing the electricity export rate, only 5.0% of the projects had positive results for NPV and only 4.0% of the projects meet the criteria established for the IRR.

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KW - Dual-axis PV solar plant

KW - Financial/economic analysis

KW - RETScreen

KW - Risk analysis

KW - Solar radiation

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Sensitivity analysis of a photovoltaic solar plant in Chile

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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