Spatial dynamics in the urban-rural-natural interface within a social-ecological hotspot

City-regions in sensitive environmental spaces such as globally recognized biodiversity hotspots face the challenge of adopting land use planning strategies that facilitate the transition towards sustainability. Though landscape-scale patterns of land use changes have already been documented in central Chile, a critical spatial assessment of the dynamics and forces shaping current land use and the conservation landscape in the Valparaíso-Santiago city-region has not yet been undertaken. We applied a satellite-based survey of urban sprawl and the extension and recurrence of wildfires spanning a 35-year timeframe from 1985 to 2020. We compared their spatial occurrence with high ecological value areas (HEVA) and analyzed the resulting patterns within the framework of an ad-hoc centrifugal forces model. Results show a constant expansion of urban sprawl and direct impacts of wildfires affecting biodiversity values. La Campana-Peñuelas Biosphere Reserve emerges as a relevant spatial feature that can facilitate the transition towards sustainability at the regional scale, although the laissez-faire stance of the dominant neoliberal economic model in Chile is the most evident threat to the transition toward sustainability. We conclude that the study area, with the attributes of a social-ecological hotspot, shows strengths such as a space capable of transformative change and the potential of a regenerative city-region.