TY - JOUR
T1 - U.S. energy sector impacts of technology innovation, fuel price, and electric sector CO2 policy
T2 - Results from the EMF 32 model intercomparison study
AU - Hodson, Elke L.
AU - Brown, Maxwell
AU - Cohen, Stuart
AU - Showalter, Sharon
AU - Wise, Marshall
AU - Wood, Frances
AU - Caron, Justin
AU - Feijoo, Felipe
AU - Iyer, Gokul
AU - Cleary, Kathryne
N1 - Funding Information:
Acknowledgements: This work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis under the following contracts. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated for the U.S. Department of Energy by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, under Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308. Kathryne Cleary performed research while under appointment to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Scholars Program administered by Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education through funding provided by the U.S. Department of Energy. OnLocation's efforts were supported by NREL. The views of the authors do not necessarily reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. Any errors or omissions are the sole responsibility of the authors.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2018
PY - 2018/6
Y1 - 2018/6
N2 - We study the impact of fuel prices, technology innovation, and a CO2 emissions reduction policy on both the electric power and end-use sectors by comparing outputs from four U.S. energy-economic models through the year 2050. Achieving innovation goals decreases CO2 emissions in all models, regardless of natural gas price, due to increased energy efficiency and low-carbon generation becoming more cost competitive. For the models that include domestic natural gas markets, achieving innovation goals lowers wholesale electricity prices, but this effect diminishes as projected natural gas prices increase. Higher natural gas prices lead to higher wholesale electricity prices but fewer coal capacity retirements. A CO2 electric power sector emissions cap influences electric sector evolution under reference technology assumptions but has little to no incremental influence when added to innovation goals. Long-term, meeting innovation goals achieves a generation mix with similar CO2 emissions compared to the CO2 policy but with smaller increases to wholesale electricity prices. In the short-term, the relative effect on wholesale prices differs by model. Finally, higher natural gas prices, achieving innovation goals, and the combination of the two, increases the amount of renewable generation that is cost-effective to build and operate while slowing the growth of natural-gas fired generation, which is the predominant generation type in 2050 under reference conditions.
AB - We study the impact of fuel prices, technology innovation, and a CO2 emissions reduction policy on both the electric power and end-use sectors by comparing outputs from four U.S. energy-economic models through the year 2050. Achieving innovation goals decreases CO2 emissions in all models, regardless of natural gas price, due to increased energy efficiency and low-carbon generation becoming more cost competitive. For the models that include domestic natural gas markets, achieving innovation goals lowers wholesale electricity prices, but this effect diminishes as projected natural gas prices increase. Higher natural gas prices lead to higher wholesale electricity prices but fewer coal capacity retirements. A CO2 electric power sector emissions cap influences electric sector evolution under reference technology assumptions but has little to no incremental influence when added to innovation goals. Long-term, meeting innovation goals achieves a generation mix with similar CO2 emissions compared to the CO2 policy but with smaller increases to wholesale electricity prices. In the short-term, the relative effect on wholesale prices differs by model. Finally, higher natural gas prices, achieving innovation goals, and the combination of the two, increases the amount of renewable generation that is cost-effective to build and operate while slowing the growth of natural-gas fired generation, which is the predominant generation type in 2050 under reference conditions.
KW - CO policy
KW - Electric power sector
KW - Energy modeling forum
KW - Greenhouse gas emissions
KW - Technology innovation
KW - Wholesale electricity prices
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85048583418&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.03.027
DO - 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.03.027
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85048583418
VL - 73
SP - 352
EP - 370
JO - Energy Economics
JF - Energy Economics
SN - 0140-9883
ER -