TY - JOUR
T1 - US energy system transitions under cumulative emissions budgets
AU - FEIJOO PALACIOS, FELIPE ANDRES
AU - Iyer, Gokul
AU - Binsted, Matthew
AU - Edmonds, James
N1 - Funding Information:
This work is part of a project that has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 642147 (CD-LINKS).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, Battelle Memorial Institute.
Copyright:
Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2020/10/1
Y1 - 2020/10/1
N2 - Cumulative emissions budgets are increasingly being used by decision-makers and analysts to understand emissions reductions and associated transitions in the context of long-term goals such as limiting global mean temperature increase over the century to 1.5 or 2 °C. While previous studies have explored the implications of such budgets for the global economy, few studies have conducted regional- and national-level analyses. This paper explores budgets through 2050 consistent with the 1.5 and 2 °C long-term temperature goals in the context of the USA. We employ a state-level model of the USA embedded within a global human-Earth system model (GCAM-USA) to study the implications of such budgets for the US energy system. Our results show that achieving the stringent budgets entails accelerated deployment of energy conserving technology, almost complete decarbonization of the power sector, increased electrification of buildings and industrial end-use sectors, and decarbonization of transport employing a combination of electrification and the substitution of fossil fuels for bioenergy. We also find substantial state-level differences in the relative roles of these decarbonization strategies. Furthermore, our results highlight that increased ambition in the near term will be valuable in setting the stage for smoother transformations in the future to achieve stringent budgets.
AB - Cumulative emissions budgets are increasingly being used by decision-makers and analysts to understand emissions reductions and associated transitions in the context of long-term goals such as limiting global mean temperature increase over the century to 1.5 or 2 °C. While previous studies have explored the implications of such budgets for the global economy, few studies have conducted regional- and national-level analyses. This paper explores budgets through 2050 consistent with the 1.5 and 2 °C long-term temperature goals in the context of the USA. We employ a state-level model of the USA embedded within a global human-Earth system model (GCAM-USA) to study the implications of such budgets for the US energy system. Our results show that achieving the stringent budgets entails accelerated deployment of energy conserving technology, almost complete decarbonization of the power sector, increased electrification of buildings and industrial end-use sectors, and decarbonization of transport employing a combination of electrification and the substitution of fossil fuels for bioenergy. We also find substantial state-level differences in the relative roles of these decarbonization strategies. Furthermore, our results highlight that increased ambition in the near term will be valuable in setting the stage for smoother transformations in the future to achieve stringent budgets.
KW - CD-LINKS
KW - Cumulative emissions budget
KW - Deep decarbonization
KW - Global Change Assessment Model
KW - Nationally determined contribution
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85079463849&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s10584-020-02670-0
DO - 10.1007/s10584-020-02670-0
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85079463849
VL - 162
SP - 1947
EP - 1963
JO - Climatic Change
JF - Climatic Change
SN - 0165-0009
IS - 4
ER -