Fishery forecasting based on singular spectrum analysis combined with bivariate regression

Lida Barba, Nibaldo Rodríguez

Resultado de la investigación: Capítulo del libro/informe/acta de congresoContribución a la conferenciarevisión exhaustiva

1 Cita (Scopus)

Resumen

The fishery of anchovy and sardine has a great importance in the economy of Chile; they are important resources used for internal consumption and for export. The forecasting based on historical time series is a fishery planning tool. In this paper is presented the forecasting of anchovy and sardine by means of the monthly catches in the Chilean northern coast (18°S – 24°S), during the period January 1976 to December 2007. The forecasting strategy is presented in two stages: preprocessing and prediction. In the first stage the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) technique is applied to extract the components interannual and annual of the time series. In the second stage the Bivariate Regression (BVR) is implemented to predict the extracted components. The results evaluated with the efficiency metrics show a high prediction accuracy of the strategy based on SSA and BVR. Besides, the results are compared with a conventional nonlinear prediction based on an Autoregressive Neural Network (ANN) with Levenberg-Marquardt; it was demonstrated the improvement in the prediction accuracy by using the proposed strategy SSA-BVR with regard to the results obtained with the ANN.

Idioma originalInglés
Título de la publicación alojadaAdvances in Artificial Intelligence and Its Applications - 14th Mexican International Conference on Artificial Intelligence, MICAI 2015, Proceedings
EditoresOscar Herrera Alcántara, Obdulia Pichardo Lagunas, Gustavo Arroyo Figueroa
EditorialSpringer Verlag
Páginas487-497
Número de páginas11
ISBN (versión impresa)9783319271002
DOI
EstadoPublicada - 2015
Publicado de forma externa
Evento14th Mexican International Conference on Artificial Intelligence, MICAI 2015 - Cuernavaca, Morelos, México
Duración: 25 oct 201531 oct 2015

Serie de la publicación

NombreLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
Volumen9414
ISSN (versión impresa)0302-9743
ISSN (versión digital)1611-3349

Conferencia

Conferencia14th Mexican International Conference on Artificial Intelligence, MICAI 2015
País/TerritorioMéxico
CiudadCuernavaca, Morelos
Período25/10/1531/10/15

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